解釋私營部門項目評估的折現現金流方法。為什么折現是評估投資項目凈收益計算的重要組成部分？
Explain the discounted cash flow methods of project appraisal in the private sector. Why is discounting an important component part of the calculations that are made to appraise net benefits of an investment project?
折現現金流量法（以下簡稱“現金流量法”）主要應用于以貨幣時間價值為內容的項目評估，特別是對私營部門而言。也就是說，貼現現金流是利用其現值（以下簡稱“現值”）進行貼現的，該現值是為未來現金流估計而設計的。在對現值的解釋中，我們認為所有未來流入和流出的現金流都是凈現值（NPV），在私營部門的項目評估應用中，凈現值始終以價值或價格的形式存在。在計算DCF下的凈現值時，應充分考慮三個因素，即投入現金流量、折現率和產出價格。
Discounted Cash Flows methods (hereinafter called “DCF”) are mainly applied to the project valuation under the contents of the time value of the money especially for the private sector. Namely, the DCF is discounted to use their Present Value (hereinafter called “PV”), which is designed for the future cash flows estimation. In the explanation of the PV is guided that all future incoming and outgoing cash flow are both Net Present Value (NPV) which is always in the form of the value or price in the application of project appraisal in the private sector. In the calculation of the NPV under the DCF, three factors should fully considered in the question, that is , input cash flow, discounted rates and output price.
折現率是根據加權平均資本成本（以下簡稱加權平均資本成本）來計算的，加權平均資本成本對現金流量的風險影響很大。此外，折現率可以反映貨幣時間價值和風險溢價兩個組成部分。此外，貼現現金流公式是從未來價值公式中推導出來的，用于計算貨幣的時間價值和復合回報。The discount rate is applied in the light of the weighted average cost of capital (hereinafter called WACC) which could have the great impact on the risk of the cash flow. In addition, the discounted rate could reflect two components, that is, time value of the money and risk premium. Also, the discounted cash flow formula is derived from the future value formula for calculating the time value of money and compounding returns.
As can be seen in the formula, discounting an important component part of the calculations that are made to appraise net benefits of an investment project, the reason is that it is connected to time value of money and compounding returns in the project.
There are three methods; they are Net present value,the internal rate of return, and Benefit-cost ratio.
Net present value (NPV)
NPV is the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows. It is used in capital budgeting to analyze the profitability of an investment or project.
The internal rate of return (IRR)
The internal rate of return (IRR) is a rate of return used in capital budgeting to measure and compare the profitability of investments. In the context of savings and loans, the IRR is also called the effective interest rate. The term internal refers to the fact that its calculation does not incorporate environmental factors (e.g., the interest rate or inflation).
Benefit-cost ratio(BCR)
A benefit-cost ratio (BCR) is an indicator, used in the formal discipline of cost-benefit analysis that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project or proposal. A BCR is the ratio of the benefits of a project or proposal, expressed in monetary terms, relative to its costs, also expressed in monetary terms. All benefits and costs should be expressed in discounted present values.
Explain how changes of working capital are taken into account in the accurate estimation of the Net Cash Flow of a project.
The working capital has the close relationship with the current assets and current liabilities. In the contents of the current assets included the items such as cash on hand and account receivable and others; also, the contents of the current liabilities are included the items such as account payable and short-term loan within one year and others. The project can be recorded the working capital as their daily operations. Also, the project could estimate the net cash flow through the working capital between two accounting periods. The relationship can be described as the increase the working capital, the decrease the net cash flow; conversely, the working capital is decreasing, the net cash flow is increasing.
Outline the main stages of a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA) with reference to a project appraisal with which you are familiar.
The objective of the SCBA is to determine:
1. Economic benefits of the project in terms of shadow price;
2. The impact of the project on the level of savings and investments in the society;
3. The impact of the project on the distribution of income in the society;
4. The contribution of the project towards the fulfillment of certain irritants (self-sufficiency, employment etc.)
There are five stages involved in the SCBA: Case of the environment impact assessment
1. Define the decision;
Whether environment impact is a serious problem?
2. Identify and measure the project's impacts;
3. Quantify these impacts into monetary values;
4. Discount future costs and benefits;
Individually normally prefer to enjoy the benefit now rather than later, the future value should be discounted
5. Apply decision rue;
6. Allow for risk and uncertainty;
7. Make a recommendation.
Suggest an appropriate methodology to value each of the following project impacts:
a) a tourism project that attracts more visitors to a national park
b) a highway project that generates increased traffic noise and air pollution in the vicinity of the highway
c) a dam project that floods a valley which results in the loss of unique prehistoric archaeological sites.
For each impact you should select a different methodology. Your answer should emphasisethe strengths and weaknesses of your chosen methodology in relation to the project impact being discussed.
a) TCM
Advantage
Provided the site attractsvisitors from a sufficiently wide range of different locations so that visitorsfrom these various locations incur different travel costs, then these resultingvariations in travel costs and the differences in the rates of visits that theyinduce, provide a basis for estimating a demand curve for that site and theWTP for a visit.
Disadvantage
Data for TCM is expensive tocollect and analyse. Some trips are multi-purpose so TCM may work best forisolated sites (where travel costs are significant and multipurpose journeysare not a problem)
b) Hedonic pricing
Advantage
Open spaces such as parks, general open spaces, wetlands and farmlandsprovide a range of external benefits to the residents of communitieslocated alongside such spaces. These include recreational uses, the pleasureof scenic views and the like. The value of such open spaces has beenmeasured by the use of hedonic pricing, again in relation to propertyprices.
Disadvantage
The problem with hedonic pricing models is that while they are intuitively helpful tools, they require very large and comprehensive data sets (e.g. on regional property prices, wage differentials) and may be expensive in terms of data collection and econometric modelling capacity. There may also be some difficulties associated with the measurement and establishment of causal relationships. It is assumed that property/land values and wage markets operate efficiently. In developing countries, property markets may be underdeveloped or distorted by government intervention.
c) Total economic value
Advantage
The total economic value (TEV) of an environmental asset is thesum of the Use Value, the Indirect Value, the Option Value and the Existence Value.
Disadvantage
Ecological services such as soil and watershed protection but it are not easy, they suggest, placing a value on these because ofa lack of quantitative studies to provide estimates. |